Analysis of numerical model structural uncertainty influence on simulation results
LI Xingnan1,2, JIN Jiangyue1,2, JIANG Yanan1,2,3*
1. Northwest Water Conservancy and Hydropower Construction Survey and Design Institute, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; 2. College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
Abstract：Based on the MODFLOW module in GMS, a numerical simulation model of underground water flow was developed, which focuses on the structural uncertainty of groundwater numerical model and takes Etuoke Banner, Inner Mongolia as an example. The influence of model structure(aquifer thickness, parameter partition)and uncertainty factors of model parameters on the simulation results was analyzed. The results show that the accumulative and maximum value of the absolute difference between the uncertain aquifer scenario(the lower boundary of the aquifer is set to the average of 870 m of water-proof floor)and the actual situation is 701 m, which plays a main role in controlling the simulation results. When the lower boundary of the aquifer is set to 910 m and 940 m, the accumulative sum increases to 1 013 m and 1 593 m respectively. Compared with only considering a single uncertainty factor, the accumulative sum of model parameters and aquifer uncertainty scenarios is 738 m at the same time, and the accumulative sum of parameter zoning and aquifer uncertainty scenarios is 791 m at the same time. Therefore, when constructing the numerical simulation model of groundwater flow, the reasonable degree of spatial structure generalization of aquifer should be given priority, and the comprehensive influence of multiple uncertain factors on the simulation results should be considered, so that the numerical simulation model of groundwater flow can reflect the real groundwater flow situation more accurately.
李兴男,金江跃,降亚楠*. 数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2021, 39(2): 179-185.
LI Xingnan,JIN Jiangyue,JIANG Yanan*. Analysis of numerical model structural uncertainty influence on simulation results. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2021, 39(2): 179-185.
