Prediction of future climate change in northwest inland arid areas of China under multi-mode and multiple scenarios
YAN Churui1,2, LIU Liu1,2*, HUANG Guanhua1,2
1.College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China; 2.Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
Based on three RCP scenarios(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), a statistical downscaling model(SDSM)was established by using observed meteorological data, ERA-40 reanalysis data and 5 preferred GCMs output selected from 23 GCMs of CMIP5. Then, the climate change scenarios were predicted, including daily precipitation, highest and lowest ambient temperatures during 2021-2050 in the Heihe River basin, which is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China. Results showed that the SDSM had a good predicting capacity for the ambient temperature in the basin. During calibration and validation periods, the coefficient of determination(R2)and the coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)were both larger than 0.9, while the root mean square error(RMSE)was less than 20%. However, the SDSM showed relatively lower simulation efficiency for precipitation with R2 and NSE values of above 0.5 in most meteorological stations, except the stations located in the downstream desert areas. Compared with the baseline period(1976—2005), the annual mean precipitation simulated by different GCMs during 2021—2050 showed a decline globally in one RCP scenario only; in the rest RCP scenarios, however, the precipitation fluctuated in a range of(-10-+10)%. Specially, the precipitation depended on season and month largely, and it was more summer but less in spring in most RCP scenarios. Note that the highest and lowest ambient temperatures exhibited a similar increasing tendency during 2021—2050 under all RCP scenarios. The increment of the highest ambient temperature was lower than the increment of the lowest ambient temperature, especially, both increments rose with increasing concentration of RCP.
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