(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072,China;2.Ningxia Water Investment Group Co.Ltd.,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750001,China;3.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210098,China;4.Administration of Dayudu Pumping Station in Shanxi Province,Yuncheng,Shanxi 044600,China;5.Administration of Fenghuangjing Irrigation and Drainage Pumping Station in Anhui Province,Chaohu,Anhui 238341,China）
Abstract：To increase the credibility of determining the aging degree grade of pumping station,a new pumping station aging degree evaluation model based on evidence theory was built.Taking two typical pumping stations as examples,from which aging information was extracted for each index.According to pumping station aging evaluation standard,three experts were asked to give score separately on each aging degree grade for basic indices of the index system and each score as one piece of evidence after being normalized.According to the Dempster combination rule,pieces of evidence were composited to get credibility allocation of each basic index on framework of recognition as one piece of evidence.Pieces of evidence were composited in accordance with this rule and evidence synthesis formula with weighting factor,credibility allocation on framework of recognition of integrated management,electrical and mechanical equipment,buildings,metal structures and the whole pumping station figured out.Then ultimate score of pumping station aging degree was calculated according to a given formula,and aging degree grade of pumping station was found out in contrast with a given table.Compared with results from model of fuzzy-AHP comprehensive evaluation model,to some index on frame of discernment,the maximum credibility is 2.4 times as much as the maximum fuzzy membership,and both of them correspond to the same aging degree grade,except evidence conflict situation which is difficult to resolve.It showed that application of evidence theory can increase determination of pumping station aging degree grade.Each piece of evidence is necessary to be normalized before evidence combination,which can well solve situation in which the composited credibility is likely to be greater than 1.
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