Abstract：According to the meteorological data of over 30 years at 11 weather stations and cultivated area information of 20 years in Baojixia Irrigation District, the variation characteristics of climate and crop planting structure were analyzed, the crop and agriculture water requirements were calculated; then the evolutionary tendency of agriculture water requirement was investigated and the driving factors that affect the agriculture water requirement were disclosed by using principal component regression method. The results showed that temperature in the irrigation district rises significantly, but relative humidity and wind speed reduce obviously, evaporation and sunshine hour increase somewhat, but precipitation decreases to some extent. Agricultural planting structure of the irrigation district changes greatly, the ratio of food crop planting area over economic crop planting areas decreases markedly, for instance, it is diminished to 1.83 in 2010 from 4.08 in 1991. The ratio of food crop planting area over total crop planting area decrease too, for example, it is reduced to 0.40 in 2010 from 0.46 in 1991. The water requirement of four kinds of crops, namely wheat, corn, canola and cotton shows an increa-sing tendency, especially the water requirement of canola exhibits the highest increasing rate, about 3.558 mm/a; however, the agricultural water requirement has an decreasing tendency and its decline rate is 3.35×107 m3/a. The major driving factors that affect the agricultural water requirement are planting area, precipitation and evaporation. Declining precipitation and increasing evaporation result in a markedly increased water requirement, however, the decreasing crop planting area causes a signi-ficantly reduced agricultural water requirement.
李萍, 魏晓妹. 变化环境下农业需水量演变趋势及驱动力[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2013, 31(9): 822-828.
Li Ping, Wei Xiaomei. Evolutionary tendency of agriculture water requirement and its driving force under changing environment. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2013, 31(9): 822-828.
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