基于模糊推理系统的稀释沥青黏度预测模型

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江苏大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2) : 212-220.

土木与材料工程

基于模糊推理系统的稀释沥青黏度预测模型

田镍，郑木莲，刘侠

作者信息 +

Diluted asphalt viscosity prediction model based on fuzzy inference system

TIAN Nie， ZHENG Mulian， LIU Xia

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为探究不同溶剂对沥青黏度的影响规律，采用碳氢溶剂（HS）和乙酸乙酯（EA）制备了单、复掺型稀释沥青，进行了布氏旋转黏度试验，分析了两种溶剂的降黏效果.基于模糊推理系统（FIS），建立了沥青黏度预测模型，并将预测值与试验测得的实际值作了误差分析.结果表明：单掺HS的降黏曲线呈指数函数倒数形式分布，且单掺的HS质量分数为10%~30%时，降黏曲线急速下降段的沥青黏度从88 000 mPa·s下降到5 800 mPa·s；复掺的HS和EA质量分数分别为10%和25%时，沥青黏度分别小于3 500 mPa·s和150 mPa·s，复掺HS和EA对沥青降黏效果较好，且EA降黏更高效；预测值与试验值的误差项MAE、MAPE、RMSE、R2和配对t检验p值分别为12.216 7、0.068 5、18.159 4、0.999 3和0.667，表明预测模型能真实反映实际效果，建立的复掺溶剂型沥青黏度预测模型的精度较高，形成的交互式黏度计算窗口具有实用便捷性.

Abstract

To investigate the influence of solvents on asphalt viscosity, the single and dual solvent diluted asphalts were prepared using hydrocarbon solvent (HS) and ethyl acetate (EA). The Brookfield rotational viscosity tests were conducted to evaluate the effects on viscosity reduction. The viscosity prediction model was established based on fuzzy inference system (FIS), and the predicted values were compared with the interpolated experimental results for error analysis. The results show that the viscosity reduction curve of the asphalt with single HS follows inverse exponential function. When the HS content ranges from 10% to 30%, the viscosity is sharply decreased from 88 000 to 5 800 mPa·s. For dual solvent systems with HS and EA contents of respective 10% and 25%, the asphalt viscosities are dropped below respective 3 500 mPa·s and 150 mPa·s, which demonstrates significant viscosity reduction, and EA shows superior viscosity reduction efficiency. The error metrics between predicted value and test value of MAE, MAPE, RMSE, R2 and paired t-test p-value are respective 12.216 7, 0.068 5, 18.159 4, 0.999 3 and 0.667, which indicates that the prediction model can reliably reflect the experimental outcomes. The proposed dual solvent viscosity prediction model exhibits high accuracy, and the developed interactive viscosity calculation tool offers practical convenience.

导出引用

田镍, 郑木莲, 刘侠. 基于模糊推理系统的稀释沥青黏度预测模型[J]. 江苏大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 46(2): 212-220

TIAN Nie, ZHENG Mulian, LIU Xia. Diluted asphalt viscosity prediction model based on fuzzy inference system[J]. Journal of Jiangsu University(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 46(2): 212-220

中图分类号： U416.217

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