Abstract：To confirm the effects of the development of economy and society and the utilization of fossil energy on the increasing of carbon emissions, the carbon emission of Chongqing city, a typical industrial city in the Yangtze River economic belt, was predicted. Based on the endogenous growth theory, the driving factors of carbon emission in Chongqing city by GDP, population and energy structure were analyzed and forecasted by the methods of data investigation and scenario analysis. Based on the production function theory, the comprehensive carbon emission model was built, and the carbon emission of Chongqing city from 2014 to 2035 was estimated. The results show that Chongqing′s GDP is expected to reach 494.03 million yuan by 2035, and the added value of the secondary and tertiary industries accounts for 97.72%. The population will reach 34.28 million, and the urban population accounts for 91.17%. The proportion of fossil energy consumption will drop to 84.53%, and the energy consumption intensity will drop to 4 400 tons of standard coal·(10 000 yuan)-1. When the growth of various driving factors is consistent with the endogenous growth trend, Chongqing′s carbon emissions will reach a peak of 1757 million tons around 2025.
