Prediction for spatiotemporal drought in Guizhou Province based on CMIP5 multimodel collection#br#
(1. Henan Small Watershed Ecological Water Conservancy Engineering Technology Research Center, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China; 2. Faculty of Hydraulic Engineering, Yellow River Conservancy Technical Institute, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China; 3. Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China)
Abstract：To scientifically and reasonably estimate the impact of drought changes on the water resources management system，based on coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5） multimodel data collection with Guizhou Province as research object，the drought trend and spatialtemporal characteristics of Guizhou Province from 2020 to 2100 was investigated using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI).The results show that the dry and wet conditions in Guizhou Province alternate on a time scale. The trend of aridification in autumn and winter is obvious, and the central area of Guizhou Province has a trend of aridification in four seasons. SPEI in different seasons has inconsistent oscillation periods and unstable variation characteristics of each period. The drought oscillation periods can be divided into two oscillation cycles of 4 a and 15 a.The overall drought intensity in Guizhou Province shows decreasing trend,but in the coming autumn and winter, the global drought will reach more than 30 a. The frequency of drought will be more than 20.0%, indicating that the coverage of autumn and winter drought in Guizhou Province will further expand.
