Risk warning of nocar operating carrier based on PCALogit model
1. School of Automobile, Chang′an University, Xi′an, Shaanxi 710064, China; 2. Transport of Management Institute Ministry of Transport, Beijing 065201, China; 3. Liaoning Provincial College of Communication, Shenyang, Liaoning 110122, China
Abstract：To estimate the risk and improve the accuracy of risk warning for nocar operating carrier, the PCALogit risk warning model was established. The risk warning index system with 26 indices was put forward according to the main source of risk in nocar operating carrier business process and the PCA of risk warning index system, and the risk probability was calculated by Logit risk warning model. 15 nocar operating carrier enterprises were chosen for case study, in which 8 principal components with cumulative variance contribution rate of 91.03％ were extracted to obtain the expressions according to the value of factor loading matrix. The model parameters were calibrated by the maximum likelihood estimation, and the risk warning value of 15 nocar operating carrier enterprises were calculated. The results show that there is strong correlation among nocar operating carrier risk and management level, competition strength of transportation market, negotiating price advantage of shipper and actual carrier and attribute of goods.
2017, Vol. 38 
