Abstract：In order to explore the discreteness of longterm deformation of cable tower,taking Chongqing Caijia Jialing River Bridge as project background, five main structure parameters and central composite design method were adopted to conduct experiment design with three levels. Response surface models without considering the influence of crossterms were constructed to express the complex implicit relationship between cable tower deformation response and random parameters by approximate explicit functions. Significance test and accuracy test on response surface models were carried out using F test and corrected determination coefficient. To simplify the response surface models, the significance of basis function was analyzed by backward regression. The longterm cable tower deformation prediction in the sense of probability was conducted by Monte Carlo sampling analysis. The forecast results show that the displacement difference calculated by the deterministic method and uncertainty method is increased from 1322 mm in one year to 7162 mm in 30 years. The random parameters have great influence on the prediction of tower displacement of cablestayed bridge, and considering randomness of parameters is suitable to connect structure design and construction.
2016, Vol. 37 
