Comparisons of reference evapotranspiration forecasting methods with public weather forecasts for Youth Canal Irrigation District in Guangdong
YAN Chengming1,2, LIU Meng2, LUO Yufeng2*
1.Guangdong Polytechnic of Water Resources and Electric Engineering, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510925, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China
Abstract：Accurate method for forecasting reference evapotranspiration(ET0)in Youth Canal Irrigation District of Guangdong province was investigated to develop accurate irrigation forecasts and reduce agricultural water use. Daily weather observation data of the Zhanjiang Weather Station from January 1, 2003 to May 31, 2017 and daily public weather forecast data of 7 days ahead from January 1, 2016 to May 31, 2017 were collected. Forecasted ET0 from weather forecasts and Hargreaves-Samani(HS)method, reduced set Penman-Monteith(PT), and the daily average modification method were compared with calculated ET0 with FAO-56 Penman-Monteith and observed weather data. The results show that the average values of mean absolute error(MAE)of the 3 methods above are 0.908 3, 0.903 1 and 0.947 9 mm/d respectively, the root mean square errors(RMSE)are 1.099 1, 1.099 9 and 1.192 4 mm/d respectively and the correlation coefficients are 0.649 5, 0.649 8 and 0.615 9,respectively. Among the 3 methods, the PT has the best values of MAE and correlation coefficients. The PT method has the highest accuracy for the forecast horizon of 1—5 day while the HS method is the best for the forecast horizon of 6—7 days. Therefore, the PT method is recommended for ET0 forecasting Youth Canal Irrigation District.
晏成明,, 刘梦, 罗玉峰*. 基于公共天气预报的广东青年运河灌区参考作物腾发量预报方法比较[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2018, 36(8): 738-743.
YAN Chengming,, LIU Meng, LUO Yufeng*. Comparisons of reference evapotranspiration forecasting methods with public weather forecasts for Youth Canal Irrigation District in Guangdong. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2018, 36(8): 738-743.
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