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| Can human capital agglomeration of graduate students in China affect informal employment: based on spatial spillover effect and threshold characterization |
| ZHAO Zhiqiang1, ANDREW Lee2 |
| 1. Institute of Education, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China;2. Teachers College, Columbia University, New York 10027, USA |
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Abstract Informal employment plays a key role in expanding employment capacity and alleviating employment conflicts. Based on the panel data set of 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2021, this study constructed a spatial Durbin model, a spatial decay model and a threshold regression model to analyze the influence mechanism and threshold characteristics of graduate student human capital agglomeration on informal employment. The results show that: in terms of spillover effect, human capital agglomeration of graduate students has a positive effect on informal employment through direct and indirect effects. In terms of spatial attenuation characteristics, the spillover effect has a spatial attenuation trend, 500 km is the abrupt point of the radiation range, and 1 000 km is the maximum attenuation boundary. In terms of threshold characteristics, its impact is influenced by the intervention of graduate student human capital concentration and technological innovation. The former increases the impact of graduate student human capital concentration on informal employment from negative to positive, while the latter increases the positive effect of graduate student human capital concentration on informal employment. Based on this, some suggestions are put forward, such as optimizing the training structure of graduate students, perfecting the system guarantee of informal employment, removing barriers to the mobility of graduate students, and perfecting the national unified big market.
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