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| System dynamics model-based simulation of agricultural water resources supply and demand balance in changing environments |
| SU Xiaoling1,2*,XIE Juan1,2, ZHOU Zhenghong1,2 |
| 1. College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China |
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Abstract A system dynamics model for supply and demand balance of agricultural water resources has been established using system dynamics software Vensim-Dss to simulate variations in agricultural water supply, demand and deficit in a changing environment. The social and economic development and climate changing scenarios were considered in the model and the impacts of changing environment on the supply and demand balance of agricultural water resources were explored. In terms of Shiyang River Basin, the results show that the extent of influence of climate change on the future agricultural water supply differs from that on the water demand. After 2033, however, the variation trends of the agricultural water supply in A2 and B2 climate scenarios are identical. The response of the agricultural water resources system to climate change in one administrative district is different from that in the other district significantly. In Jinchang Administrative District, for example, the water deficit ratio in Scenario A2 is greater that in Scenario B2, and it will arrive at 32.0% and 28.6%, respectively, in 2029 and 2038. In Scenario B2, mild water deficit will start to occur onwards 2021, and moderate water deficit should only appear in 2023 and 2039, with 30.7% and 30.7% water deficit ratios, respectively. Regarding to Wuwei Administrative District, the water deficit ratio in Scenario A2 is smaller that in Scenario B2. Specially, in Scenario A2, moderate water deficit just appears in 2038 with 24.9% water deficit ratio. In Scenario B2, however, more years will suffer from moderate water deficit, especially, the year 2023 can be subject to the most severe water shortage with a deficit ratio as large as 33.2%. These results can provide guidance on regional water utilization planning and agricultural development planning in a changing environment.
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Received: 16 June 2018
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