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| Influence of parameter uncertainty on reliability of groundwater numerical simulation results |
| LIU Pai |
| College of Energy and Water Resources, Shenyang Institute of Technology, Fushun, Liaoning 113122, China |
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Abstract A rectangular aquifer domain served as a study region for groundwater numerical simulations. The region was divided into four zones according to differences in hydraulic conductivity. A numerical simulation model was established by using the HydroGeoSphere simulation system. The sensitivity coefficient was analyzed in those aquifer zones when the permeability coefficient of the aquifer was used as an objective parameter. A stochastic simulation was conducted to evaluate the reliability of the results produced by deterministic model and stochastic model. Results showed that the permeability coefficient in top element 1 was the most sensitive. This fact may be related to the zone location directly. Based on the stochastic model, the pressure head was distributed in a certain probability. According to the deterministic model, the frequency of 290.52 cm pressure head variation was 7% only. When the reliability of deterministic model was considered as 100%, the reliability of stochastic model was reduced remarkably. This suggested that there was a significant difference in the results predicted by the stochastic model from those by the deterministic model. Since the probabilistic distribution characteristics in the results of stochastic model can represent the actual situation of groundwater more realistically, the stochastic model is favor of risk evasion in groundwater resources decision-making management.
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Received: 05 August 2017
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