Water resources carrying capacity of Xianyang City basedon system dynamics
HUANG Rui-1, LIU Jun-Min-1, LI Lin-Kai-2
（1.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A ＆ F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; 2.HydroChina Guiyang Engineering Corporation, Guiyang, Guizhou 550003, China)
Abstract：Based on the principles and methods of system dynamics,carrying capacity of water resources system of Xianyang City is divided into industrial,agricultural,life and ecology,water and wastewater treatment and reuse subsystem.Regarding water shortage level as the main feedback factor,considering people's decisionmaking preferences of using water when water is in shortage,a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity of Xianyang City was established by means of the feedback relationships between the various subsystems.The simulation results showed that if the city is being developed according to the trendbased development plan,it will be subject to severe water shortage(in a level of 9% to 35%) in planning year since the agricultural and ecological water was diverted to the rapidly developing industry.If the city is developed in the track of resourcebased and environmental protection,the ecological environment will be protected very well; however,industrial and agricultural development will be severely constrained.If the city is adopted an economic development plane,even though industry development will be rapid,the city will be subject to agricultural irrigation decreased,environment degraded,serious overexploitation of groundwater,causing 3%5% water shortage,eventually leading to poor sustainable development.If the city is indicated to choose a coordinated development mode,a 13.8% growth rate of industry and agriculture will be maintained,more wastewater treated will be reused,agricultural irrigation area will be expanded steadily,and ecological environment will be improved in a great deal,water shortage will be as low as 0.4%.It suggests this plan is the optimal solution to make sure water resources carrying capacity of Xianyang City will be kept in sustainable manner.
黄蕊, 刘俊民, 李燐楷. 基于系统动力学的咸阳市水资源承载力[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2012, 30(1): 57-63.
HUANG Rui, LIU Jun-Min, LI Lin-Kai. Water resources carrying capacity of Xianyang City basedon system dynamics. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2012, 30(1): 57-63.
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