Abstract： In order to obtain the optimal combination of the tide and the wind in seadike design, two different concepts of independent risk and related risk were put forward. Based on these concepts and the theory of probability, a computational model of the two risks was defined and the relationship between the two risks was analyzed. Accordingly, a method for optimizing the two design parameters (tide and wind ) was proposed. By applying the abovementioned optimal design method to some case studies of Lianyungang, Sheyangzha, Tianshenggang in Jiangsu province, it is found that, because of different change tendency between tide and wind, the assumption that tide and wind adopt the same frequency is too conservative for design; the characteristics difference between tide and wind causes regional difference of the best combination of the two parameters; the present Jiangsu seadike design standard of the tide level for "the fiftyyear return period encountering the 10th grade wind", from the perspective of optimal combination, can be further discussed regarding its rationality and safety. To ensure the seadike project′s safety and economy in seadike designing, the coordination between the two types of risks should be taken into consideration. This optimal design method can also be applied in other similar water engineering designs.
杨星, 何勇, 王蔚, 陈文猛. 江苏省海堤工程不同重现期风潮组合优化设计[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2013, 31(4): 313-317.
YANG Xing, HE Yong, WANG Wei, CHEN Wen-Meng. Optimal design for wind and tide with different return periods in Jiangsu seadike projects. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2013, 31(4): 313-317.
［1］胡殿才,马兴华,陈学良.曹妃甸海域西风减水效应在海堤工程中的应用［J］.水运工程,2009(2):56-61.Hu Diancai,Ma Xinghua,Chen Xueliang. Study on the tidal level decreasing effect of westerly wind at Caofeidian waters and its application in sea embankment works［J］. Port ＆ Waterway Engineering,2009(2):56-61. (in Chinese)［2］季永兴,张燎军,卢永金.基于超越概率的海堤防御标准理论探讨［J］.水电能源科学,2011,29 (1):37-39.Ji Yongxing, Zhang Liaojun, Lu Yongjin. Theoretical discussion on defense standard of sea dike based on exceedance probability［J］. Water Resources and Power,2011,29 (1):37-39. (in Chinese)［3］张从联,朱峰,李维涛，等.上海、浙江、福建三省市海堤现状调查［J］.水利水电科技进展,2008,28 (2):51-55.Zhang Conglian,Zhu Feng,Li Weitao,et al. Current status of seawalls in Shanghai,Zhejiang and Fujian in China［J］. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2008,28 (2):51-55. (in Chinese)［4］Mirakbari M, Ganji A, Fallah S R.Regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts［J］.Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2010,15(12):985-1000.［5］Salvatore Grimaldia, Francesco Serinaldi.Asymmetric copula in multivariate flood frequency analysis［J］. Advances in Water Resources,2006,29(8):1155-1167.［6］Shih Chieh Kaoa,Rao S Govindaraju.A copulabased joint deficit index for droughts［J］.Journal of Hydrology,2010,380(1):121-134.［7］Wong G,Lambert M F,Leonard M,et al.Drought analysis using trivariate copulas conditional on climatic states［J］.Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2010,15(2):129-141.［8］熊立华,郭生练,肖义. Copula联结函数在多变量水文频率分析中的应用［J］. 武汉大学学报:工学版,2005,38(6):16-19.Xiong Lihua,Guo Shenglian,Xiao Yi.Application of copulas to multivariate hydrological frequency analysis ［J］.Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2005,38(6):16-19. (in Chinese)［9］刘曾美,陈子燊,李粤安.感潮河段洪潮遭遇组合风险研究［J］.中山大学学报:自然科学版,2010,49(2):113-118.Liu Zengmei,Chen Zishen,Li Yuean.Risk probability study on the combination of flood and tide for tideaffected river ［J］.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2010,49(2):113-118.(in Chinese)［10］Zhang L, Singh Vijay P, Asce F.GumbelHougaard copula for trivariate rainfall frequency analysis［J］.Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2007,12(4):409-419.［11］薛桁,朱瑞兆,杨振斌.沿海陆上风速衰减规律［J］.太阳能学报,2002,23(2):207-210.Xue Hang,Zhu Ruizhao,Yang Zhenbin. Study on land wind speed variation in coastal area［J］. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2002,23(2):207-210.(in Chinese)
