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Prediction model of equipment maintenance support cost based on n-order gray system theory |
1.Military Simulation Teaching and Research Section, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210007, China; 2.Unit 73686, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210014, China |
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Abstract To improve the using rationality of equipment maintenance support (EMS) cost, the concept of ″compensation factor″ and a new GM (1,1 ) model were proposed based on the norder compensation factor. A calculation flow was designed to obtain the ideal value of the proposed model, which could also weaken the phenomenon of ″overcompensation″ in the forecasting process. The actual data of EMS cost was analyzed, and the panning transformation as well as accumulative generation was realized to achieve the actual data sequence because the actual data of EMS cost have a strongly monotonic increasing regularity. The prediction model of EMS cost was constructed to solve the solution by the proposed method, the calculation flow and the processed data. The experiment was conducted to compare the introduced model with ordinary GM (1,1) and BP neural network. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is higher than those of the other two methods, which indicates that the prediction model based on norder compensation factor is useful and accurate.
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Received: 17 April 2013
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