|
|
|
| Evolutionary tendency of agriculture water requirement and its driving force under changing environment |
| Li Ping, Wei Xiaomei |
| College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract According to the meteorological data of over 30 years at 11 weather stations and cultivated area information of 20 years in Baojixia Irrigation District, the variation characteristics of climate and crop planting structure were analyzed, the crop and agriculture water requirements were calculated; then the evolutionary tendency of agriculture water requirement was investigated and the driving factors that affect the agriculture water requirement were disclosed by using principal component regression method. The results showed that temperature in the irrigation district rises significantly, but relative humidity and wind speed reduce obviously, evaporation and sunshine hour increase somewhat, but precipitation decreases to some extent. Agricultural planting structure of the irrigation district changes greatly, the ratio of food crop planting area over economic crop planting areas decreases markedly, for instance, it is diminished to 1.83 in 2010 from 4.08 in 1991. The ratio of food crop planting area over total crop planting area decrease too, for example, it is reduced to 0.40 in 2010 from 0.46 in 1991. The water requirement of four kinds of crops, namely wheat, corn, canola and cotton shows an increa-sing tendency, especially the water requirement of canola exhibits the highest increasing rate, about 3.558 mm/a; however, the agricultural water requirement has an decreasing tendency and its decline rate is 3.35×107 m3/a. The major driving factors that affect the agricultural water requirement are planting area, precipitation and evaporation. Declining precipitation and increasing evaporation result in a markedly increased water requirement, however, the decreasing crop planting area causes a signi-ficantly reduced agricultural water requirement.
|
|
Received: 09 October 2012
|
|
|
|
| [1]张建云,王国庆,刘九夫,等.气候变化权威报告——IPCC报告[J].中国水利,2008(2):38-40. Zhang Jianyun, Wang Guoqing, Liu Jiufu, et al. Introduction of IPCC reports[J]. China Water Resources, 2008(2):38-40.(in Chinese)[2]吴普特,赵西宁.气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产的影响[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(2):1-6. Wu Pute, Zhao Xining. Impact of climate change on agricultural water use and grain production in China[J].Transactions of the CSAE, 2010,26(2):1-6.(in Chinese)[3]刘晓英,林而达.气候变化对华北地区主要作物需水量的影响[J].水利学报,2004,35(2):77-82,87. Liu Xiaoying, Lin Erda. Impact of climate change on water requirement of main crops in North China[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2004,35(2):77-82,87.(in Chinese)[4]Irmak S, Kabenge I, Skaggs K E, et al. Trend and magnitude of changes in climate variables and reference evapotranspiration over 116-yr period in the Platte River Basin, central Nebraska-USA[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012,420/421:228-244.[5]Liu Changming, Zhang Dan, Liu Xiaomang, et al. Spatial and temporal change in the potential evapotranspiration sensitivity to meteorological factors in China(1960—2007)[J]. J Geogr Sci, 2012,22(1):3-14.[6]马鹏里,杨兴国,陈端生,等. 农作物需水量随气候变化的响应研究[J].西北植物学报,2006,26(2):348-353. Ma Pengli, Yang Xingguo, Chen Duansheng, et al. Responses of crop water requirements to climatic changes[J]. Acta Botanica Boreali-Occidentalia Sinica, 2006,26(2):348-353.(in Chinese)[7]Shadmani Mojtaba, Marofi Safar, Roknian Majid. Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration using Mann-Kendall and Spearman′s Rho tests in arid regions of Iran[J]. Water Resources Management, 2012,26(1):211-224.[8]Gong Lebing, Xu Chongyu, Chen Deliang, et al. Sensitivity of the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang(Yangtze River)basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2006,329(3/4):620-629.[9]陕西省水利水土保持厅,西北农业大学.陕西省作物需水量及分区灌溉模式[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1992.[10]Ssegane H, Tollner E W, Mohamoud Y M, et al. Advances in variable selection methods I: Causal selection methods versus stepwise regression and principal component analysis on data of known and unknown functional relationships[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012,438/439:16-25.[11]李相虎,赵鑫,任立良.石羊河流域近50 a来水资源变化的定量分析[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2007,35(2):164-167. Li Xianghu, Zhao Xin, Ren Liliang. Quantitative analysis of water resources variation for Shiyang River Basin for recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Hohai University: Natural Sciences, 2007,35(2):164-167.(in Chinese) |
|
|
|
