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| Assessment of risk-based irrigation decision-making with consideration of future rainfall |
| NIE Qianwen1, LUO Yufeng2, LIU Fangping3, LYU Xinwei4, CUI Yuanlai2, JIAO Xiyun1 |
| 1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China; 3.Jiangxi Central Irrigation Experiment Station, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330201, China; 4.School of Software Engineering, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026, China |
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Abstract Increasing the use efficiency of rainfall is an effective way for saving agricultural water consumption. Although an irrigation decision-making based on future rainfall can improve rainfall use efficiency and reduce waste of water, there also exists a yield reduction risk caused from incorrect rainfall forecasts. Taking Ganfu Plain Irrigation District as an example, the water requirement of rice is predicted and irrigation schedules are decided based on the short-term temperature and rainfall forecast data in 2014-2015 in early and late season rice growing periods. In this risk-based irrigation decision-making strategy, the future rainfall is taken into account, and the new strategy is assessed against the convectional strategy in terms of water-saving, yield and number of irrigations. The results show that the risk-based irrigation decision-making with consideration of future rainfall can save 7.8%-16.7% water compared to traditional irrigation decision-making except for early season rice in 2014, in that case, two decision-making strategies predict the same irrigation water quota. Since rainfall is heavy in the early season rice growing stage, the yield is not affected by drought basically. For the late season rice, the yield predicted by the new strategy is lower but the reduction is within 0.3% and the number of irrigations is fewer by 1 or 2. Therefore, the risk-based irrigation decision-making can improve rainfall utilization efficiency, reduce number of irrigations and save irrigation water with a very little yield reduction.
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Received: 10 September 2016
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