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| Short- term prediction of chaotic hourly water consumption based on united time series |
| Zhang Qin1,Wang Xionghai1,Zhu Qingjian2 |
| (1.Institute of Electric Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310027,China;2.Huaxin P&T Consulting and Designing Institute Co.Ltd.,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310014,China) |
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Abstract Aiming at the high short-term prediction accuracy of hourly water consumption in water supply optimal operation,a united time series method was proposed based on horizontal period clustering and vertical residual modification.The horizontal time series were determined as research samples by pattern recognition with high relevancy.After the phase space of horizontal period clustering was restructured,chaotic characteristics of typical period data were analyzed and chaotic prediction model was established.Least square support vector machine was used as a forecasting tool to obtain period flows.Furthermore,to track water consumptions dynamically,vertical residuals were modified by grey model prediction after collecting real-time data.The period historical data from Xiaoshan were supplied in the normal and abnormal case study to forecast the day-ahead hourly water consumption,and prediction accuracy with different methods were compared.Test results show that the method is adept in the short-term forecasting this kind of chaotic time series,which reflects the characters of typical days and real-time water variations.And the new method outperforms other methods obviously,thus it can better satisfy the demands for optimal operation of water distribution system.
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Received: 21 March 2011
Published: 30 July 2011
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