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| Drought evolution characteristics and trend prediction in Inner Mongolia based on standardized precipitation index |
| HAN Zhihui, LIU Xiaogang, HAO Kun, YU Ning, LIU Yanwei, YANG Qiliang |
| Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China |
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Abstract To explore the evolution characteristics and trends of drought over the years in Inner Mongolia, standardized precipitation index(SPI)in the recent 51 years(1960-2010)was calculated with the daily precipitation data from 43 weather stations in Inner Mongolia, the annual and seasonal drought frequency, its station frequency ratio and drought intensity were analysed, and the trend of drought was predicted by using the Hurst index. The results showed that the annual drought frequency was in the range of 10.46%-33.66%, the highest frequency(33.66%)occurred in Hulun Buir, and the lowest one(10.46%)was in Ejina of Alxa League, additionally, the monthly and seasonal drought frequencies were consistent with the yearly drought frequency. The highest station frequency ratio was 45.74%, and the lowest one was 15.50%, particularly, the regional, partly regional and local droughts occurred in 11, 26 and 14 years, respectively. The drought intensity was mainly mild and moderate, and the maximum intensity was 1.14 in 15 years. Drought frequency was relatively high in spring, summer and autumn with a mean of about 30%, while in winter the frequency was 25.41%, moreover the drought frequency was distributed unevenly between the weather stations, for example, the drought frequency was 0 at 4 stations including Ejina. Station frequency ratio increased at the rates of 0.177/10a and 0.006/10a in summer and autumn, decreased at the rates of 0.033/10a and 0.156/10a in spring and winter, respectively. The variation trend of drought intensity was basically the same as the station frequency ratio in seasonal scale. The SPI sequence exhibited a remarked Hurst phenomenon in Inner Mongolia, and the index(0.5687)was more than 0.5, indicating that the drought degree could sustain for some time, while the frequency of the occurrence of moderate drought and above showed a decreasing trend.
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Received: 02 December 2016
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