排灌机械工程学报
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排灌机械工程学报  2019, Vol. 37 Issue (3): 248-250    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8530.18.1219
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湖北省降雨和洪涝特征时空变化规律分析
陈书军1,刘毅2,姜惠明3,翁立馨4,桂东伟2,孙怀卫2,5*,廖卫红5,严冬1
1. 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北 武汉 430074; 2. 新疆策勒荒漠草地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011; 3. 湖北省水利厅樊口电排管理处, 湖北 鄂州 436001; 4. 利物浦大学土木工程学院, 英国 利物浦 L69 3BX;5. 中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所, 北京 100038
Analysis of precipitation and drought-flood spatio-temporal variation characteristics in Hubei Province
CHEN Shujun1, LIU Yi2, JIANG Huiming3, WENG Lixin4, GUI Dongwei2, SUN Huaiwei2,5*, LIAO Weihong5, YAN Dong1
1. College of Hydropower & Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China; 2. Cele National Station of Observation & Research for Desert-grassland Ecosystem, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China; 3. Fankou Pumping Administrative Office, Ezhou, Hubei 436001, China; 4. School of Civil Enginee-ring, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3BX, United Kingdom; 5. China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
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摘要 为揭示降水变化波动与区域旱涝灾害特性间的关系,采用降水集中指数(PCI)、降水异常指数(RAI)、标准化降水指数(SPI)、降水集中度(PCD)、降水集中期(PCP)和夏季长周期旱涝急转指数(LDFAI)等表征降水特性和旱涝急转特征的多个指标对湖北省区域内旱涝急转特性和降水时空变化特征进行了研究,并对其旱涝发生规律和年代际变化进行了系统探讨.研究结果表明:区域降水具有季节性,主要表现为PCI值一般介于11~19,个别年份大于20,RAI值高低值分别发生在7月份和12月份左右;受气候变化等因素影响,省内和不同分区内近年SPI呈现波动和上升趋势,旱涝灾害发生具有持续性;全省及各区PCI,PCD值偏大,PCP值越大即雨季出现越早,则越容易发生洪涝灾害,指示洪涝灾害风险不断增加,尤其鄂西南最为突出;全省年代际变化特征明显,全省按旱涝急转频率及强度各年代际结果依次为1960s,2010s,1970s,2000s,1990s,1980s, 同时与夏季降水百分率结果表现一致.文中所得的研究成果对了解区域旱涝灾害变化特性和防治自然灾害具有重要的理论借鉴和实践参考意义.
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陈书军
刘毅
姜惠明
翁立馨
桂东伟
孙怀卫
*
廖卫红
严冬
关键词降水   旱涝急转   标准化降水指数   降水异常指数     
Abstract: To reveal the relationship between precipitation fluctuation and regional drought and flood characteristics in the climate change background, the characteristics of drought and flood and the spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in Hubei Province were studied by using a few indices such as PCI, RAI, SPI, PCD, PCP, LDFAI ans so on. Meanwhile, the occurrence and inter-decadal variations of drought and flood were systematically discussed. The results show that the regional precipitation is seasonal, i.e. PCI is generally between 11 and 19, but is greater than 20 in a few individual years, and the maximum and minimum RAIs occur in around July and December, respectively. Influenced by climate change and other factors, SPI exhibits fluctuation and rising trend, drought and flood occurances are persistent in different districts and the whole province in recent years. PCI and PCD values in each district are relatively large, specially the larger the PCP is, the earlier the rainy season is, and the more likely flood occurs, showing an inceasing risk of flood, particuallry in Southwestern Hubei. The characteristics of inter-decadal changes in the province are obvious. According to the frequency and intensity of drought and flood, the inter-decadal changes are ranked in an order 1960s>2010s>1970s>2000s>1990s>1980s. The results obtained in this paper have importantly theoretical and practical significance for understanding of the characteristics of regional drought and flood change and preventing natural disasters.
Key wordsprecipitation   droughts-floods abrupt alternation   standardized precipitation index   precipitation anomaly index   
收稿日期: 2018-05-15;
基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51879110,41601595,51309106);湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2017CFB724);湖北省水利重点科研资助项目(HBSLKY201803)
引用本文:   
陈书军,刘毅,姜惠明等. 湖北省降雨和洪涝特征时空变化规律分析[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2019, 37(3): 248-250.
CHEN Shu-Jun-,LIU Yi-,JIANG Hui-Ming- et al. Analysis of precipitation and drought-flood spatio-temporal variation characteristics in Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2019, 37(3): 248-250.
 
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