Abstract：To explore the evolution characteristics and trends of drought over the years in Inner Mongolia, standardized precipitation index(SPI)in the recent 51 years(1960-2010)was calculated with the daily precipitation data from 43 weather stations in Inner Mongolia, the annual and seasonal drought frequency, its station frequency ratio and drought intensity were analysed, and the trend of drought was predicted by using the Hurst index. The results showed that the annual drought frequency was in the range of 10.46%-33.66%, the highest frequency(33.66%)occurred in Hulun Buir, and the lowest one(10.46%)was in Ejina of Alxa League, additionally, the monthly and seasonal drought frequencies were consistent with the yearly drought frequency. The highest station frequency ratio was 45.74%, and the lowest one was 15.50%, particularly, the regional, partly regional and local droughts occurred in 11, 26 and 14 years, respectively. The drought intensity was mainly mild and moderate, and the maximum intensity was 1.14 in 15 years. Drought frequency was relatively high in spring, summer and autumn with a mean of about 30%, while in winter the frequency was 25.41%, moreover the drought frequency was distributed unevenly between the weather stations, for example, the drought frequency was 0 at 4 stations including Ejina. Station frequency ratio increased at the rates of 0.177/10a and 0.006/10a in summer and autumn, decreased at the rates of 0.033/10a and 0.156/10a in spring and winter, respectively. The variation trend of drought intensity was basically the same as the station frequency ratio in seasonal scale. The SPI sequence exhibited a remarked Hurst phenomenon in Inner Mongolia, and the index(0.5687)was more than 0.5, indicating that the drought degree could sustain for some time, while the frequency of the occurrence of moderate drought and above showed a decreasing trend.
韩志慧, 刘小刚, 郝琨, 余宁, 刘艳伟, 杨启良. 基于SPI指数的内蒙古地区干旱演变特征及趋势预测[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2017, 35(5): 430-439.
HAN Zhihui, LIU Xiaogang, HAO Kun, YU Ning, LIU Yanwei, YANG Qiliang. Drought evolution characteristics and trend prediction in Inner Mongolia based on standardized precipitation index. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2017, 35(5): 430-439.
[1]BYUN H R, WILHITE D A. Objective quantification of drought severity and duration[J]. Journal of climate, 1999, 12(9):2747-2756.[2]李维京,赵振国,李想,等.中国北方干旱的气候特征及其成因的初步研究[J].干旱气象,2003,21(4):1-5. LI Weijing,ZHAO Zhenguo,LI Xiang,et al.The drought characteristics analysis in North China and its causes of formation[J].Arid meteorology,2003,21(4):1-5.(in Chinese)[3]马柱国,符淙斌.中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析[J].气象学报,2001,59(6):737-746. MA Zhuguo,FU Congbin.Trend of surface humid index in the arid area of Northern China[J].Acta meteorologica sinica,2001,59(6),737-746.(in Chinese)[4]李庆祥,刘小宁,李小泉.近半世纪华北干旱化趋势研究[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):50-56. LI Qingxiang,LIU Xiaoning,LI Xiaoquan.Drought trend in North China in recent half century[J].Journal of natural disasters,2002,11(3):50-56.(in Chinese)[5]王志伟,翟盘茂.中国北方近50年干旱变化特征[J].地理学报,2003,58(S1):61-68. WANG Zhiwei,ZHAI Panmao.Climate change in drought over Northern China during 1950—2000[J].Acta geographica sinica,2003,58(S1):61-68.(in Chinese)[6]符淙斌,温刚.中国北方干旱化的几个问题[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(1):22-29. FU Congbin,WEN Gang.Several issues on aridification in the North China[J].Climatic and environmental research,2002,7(1):22-29.(in Chinese)[7]罗健,郝振纯.我国北方干旱的时空分布特征分析[J].河海大学学报,2001,29(4):61-66. LUO Jian,HAO Zhenchun.Study on characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of drought in North China[J].Journal of Hohai University,2001,29(4):61-66.(in Chinese)[8]高涛,肖苏君,乌兰.近47年(1961—2007)内蒙古地区降水和气温的时空变化特征[J].内蒙古气象,2009(1):3-7. GAO Tao,XIAO Sujun,WU Lan.Temporal-spatial characteristics of precipitation and temperature in Inner Mongolia for the last 47 years(1961—2007)[J].Meteorology journal of Inner Mongolia,2009(1):3-7.(in Chinese)[9]李晶,王耀强,屈忠义,等.内蒙古自治区干旱灾害时空分布特征及区划[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(5):266-272. LI Jing,WANG Yaoqiang,QU Zhongyi,et al.Characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of drought occurrence in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region[J].Agricultural research in the arid areas,2010,28(5):266-272.(in Chinese)[10]张美杰.近60 a内蒙古干旱动态分析[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2012.[11]白美兰,李金田,李喜仓,等.近50年内蒙古中东部地区春夏季干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):131-136. BAI Meilan,LI Jintian,LI Xicang,et al.Spring and summer drought characteristics in central and eastern Inner Mongolia nearly 50 years[J].Journal of arid land resources and environment,2013,27(5):131-136.(in Chinese)[12]张存厚,王明玖,李兴华,等.近30年来内蒙古地区气候干湿状况时空分布特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8):70-75. ZHANG Cunhou,WANG Mingjiu,LI Xinghua,et al.The characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of climate dry-wet conditions over Inner Mongolia in recent 30 years[J].Journal of arid land resources and environment,2011,25(8):70-75.(in Chinese)[13]王素萍,张存杰,李耀辉,等.基于标准化降水指数的1960—2011年中国不同时间尺度干旱特征[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(3):827-834. WANG Suping,ZHANG Cunjie,LI Yaohui,et al.Analysis of multi-timescale drought variation based on standardized precipitation index in China during 1960—2011[J].China desert,2014,34(3):827-834.(in Chinese)[14]李晶.内蒙古自治区干旱灾害时空分布规律及预测研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2010.[15]周扬,李宁,吉中会,等.基于SPI指数的1981—2010年内蒙古地区干旱时空分布特征[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(10):1694-1706. ZHOU Yang,LI Ning,JI Zhonghui,et al.Temporal and spatial patterns of droughts based on standard precipitation index(SPI)in Inner Mongolia during 1981—2010[J].Journal of natural resource,2013,28(10):1694-1706.(in Chinese)[16]周扬,李宁,吴吉东,等.内蒙古地区近30年干旱特征及其成灾原因[J].灾害学,2013,28(4):67-73. ZHOU Yang,LI Ning,WU Jidong,et al.Analysis of drought and its possible causes in Inner Mongolia region for nearly 30 years[J].Journal of catastrophology,2013,28(4):67-73.(in Chinese)[17]那音太.基于SPI指数的近50a内蒙古地区干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):161-166. NA Yintai.Drought characteristics in Inner Mongolia based on the SPI index in the last 50 years[J].Journal of arid land resource and environment,2015,29(5):161-166.(in Chinese)[18]王莺,李耀辉,胡田田.基于SPI指数的甘肃省河东地区干旱时空特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(1):244-253. WANG Ying,LI Yaohui,HU Tiantian.Analysis on spatial and temporal patterns of drought based on standardized precipitation index in Hedong area in Gansu Province[J].Journal of desert research,2014,34(1):244-253.(in Chinese)[19]卫捷,陶诗言,张庆云.Palmer干旱指数在华北干旱分析中的应用[J].地理学报,2003,58(S1):117-124. WEI Jie,TAO Shiyan,ZHANG Qingyun.Analysis of drought in Northern China based on the Palmer severity drought index[J].Acta geographica sinica,2003,58(S1):117-124.(in Chinese)[20]李伟光,陈汇林,朱乃海,等.标准化降水指数在海南岛干旱监测中的应用分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2009,17(1):178-182. LI Weiguang,CHEN Huilin,ZHU Naihai,et al.Analysis of drought monitoring on Hainan island from standardized precipitation index[J].Chinese journal of ecological agriculture,2009,17(1):178-182.(in Chinese)[21]SERGIO M. VICENTE-SERRANO. Spatial and temporal analysis of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula(1910—2000)[J]. Hydrological sciences journal/journal des sciences hydrologiques, 2006, 51(1):83-97.[22]张强,高歌.我国近50年旱涝时空变化及监测预警服务[J].科技导报,2004(7):21-24. ZHANG Qiang,GAO Ge.The spatial and temporal features of drought and flood disasters in the past 50 years and monitoring and warning services in China[J].Science & technology review,2004(7):21-24.(in Chinese)[23]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会气象干旱等级:GB/T 20481—2006[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.[24]刘琳,徐宗学.西南地区旱涝特征及其趋势预测[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(10):1792-1801. LIU Lin,XU Zongxue.Drought/flood characteristics and trend prediction in Southwest China[J].Journal of nature resources,2014,29(10):1792-1801.(in Chinese)[25]李新周,马柱国,刘晓东.中国北方干旱化年代际特征与大气环流的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(2):277-284. LI Xinzhou,MA Zhuguo,LIU Xiaodong.Inter decadal characteristics of aridification over Northern China associated with the variation of atmospheric circulation during the past 50 years[J].Chinese journal of atmospheric sciences,2006,30(2):277-284.(in Chinese)[26]黄荣辉,徐予红,周连童,等.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象,1999,18(4):465-476. HUANG Ronghui,XU Yuhong,ZHOU Liantong,et al.The interdecadal variation of summer precipitation in China and the drought trend in North China[J].Plateau meteorology,1999,18(4):465-476.(in Chinese)[27]杨修群,谢倩,朱益民,等.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4):789-797. YANG Xiuqun,XIE Qian,ZHU Yimin,et al.Decadal-to-interdecadal variability of precipitation in North China and associated atmospheric and oceanic anomaly patterns[J].Chinese journal of geophysics,2005,48(4):789-797.(in Chinese)[28]程龙,刘海文,周天军,等.近30余年来盛夏东亚东南季风和西南季风频率的年代际变化及其与青藏高原积雪的关系[J].大气科学,2013,37(6):1326-1336. CHENG Long,LIU Haiwen,ZHOU Tianjun,et al.Interdecadal variations of summer southeast and southwest monsoon frequency over East Asia and its relationship with snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau for recent 30 years[J].Chinese journal of atmospheric sciences,2013,37(6):1326-1336.(in Chinese)[29]张庆云,卫捷,陶诗言.近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(3):307-318. ZHANG Qingyun,WEI Jie,TAO Shiyan.The decadal and interannual variations of drought in the Northern China and association with the circulations[J].Climatic and environmental research,2003,8(3):307-318.(in Chinese)[30]卫捷,张庆云,陶诗言.近20年华北地区干旱期大气环流异常特征[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(2):140-151. WEI Jie,ZHANG Qingyun,TAO Shiyan.Characteristics of atmospheric circulation anomalies during persistent droughts in North China for last two decades[J].Journal of applied meteorological science,2003,14(2):140-151.(in Chinese)
