MARS-based estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration in Poyang Lake region
WU Lifeng1,2, JU Yan1, YANG Xiuxia2*, BAI Hua1, DAI Panwei1
1. College of Hydrodynamic and Ecological Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330099, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Basin Agricultural Resources and Ecology of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330045, China
Abstract： In order to find the most suiTab. method for calculating reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0), the ET0 estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith model was used as the standard values, ET0 models of multiple adaptive regression spline (MARS) were established by considering 12 different meteorological factors, and the results were compared with those predicted with generalized regression neural network (GRNN), support vector machine (SVM) and a few empirical correlations proposed by Hargreaves, Irmak-Allen, Makkink, and Pristley-Taylor, respectively. The observed data, including daily maximum and minimum ambient temperatures, solar duration hours, wind speed and relative humidity in 1966—1990 in Nanchang Meteorological Station were used to establish the models and those during 1991—2015 were adapted to validate the models. Results show that the accuracy of three kinds of artificial intelligence algorithms is better than that of the empirical correlations, particularly, MARS has the best accuracy, namely, RMSE, R2 and NRMSE are 0.227 mm/d, 0.982 and 0086, respectively. The accuracy of SVM is ranked in the second place with RMSE, R2, and NRMSE of 0266 mm/d, 0.978 and 0.101. GRNN is in the third place with RMSE, R2 and NRMSE of 0.323 mm/d, 0.962 and 0.123. The MARS method, which is not only with an even better accuracy but also has an explicit mathematical expression, is the optimum method for calculating ET0 in region Poyang Lake.
吴立峰,,鞠艳,杨秀霞*,白桦,戴盼伟. 基于MARS模拟鄱阳湖地区参考作物蒸散量[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2019, 37(9): 799-805.
WU Lifeng,, JU Yan, YANG Xiuxia*, BAI Hua, DAI Panwei. MARS-based estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration in Poyang Lake region. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2019, 37(9): 799-805.
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