Abstract：Accurately predicting water table depth is an important basis for water resources management in irrigation areas. Based on hysteresis and nonlinearity of groundwater in time series, a CAR-SVM water table depth prediction model was developed by integrating multivariate time series controlled auto-regressive(CAR)and support vector machine(SVM). To improve the performance of the model in freezing-thawing period, a water table depth fitting model, i.e. CAR-SVM(T-TF)model, was established for seasonal freezing-thawing irrigation district. Simulation results indicate that the performance of the CAR-SVM(T-TF)model with ambient temperature effect in the freezing-thawing period is better than either the CAR-SVM(T)model with ambient temperature effect of the whole year or the CAR-SVM without any ambient temperature effect. The CAR-SVM(T-TF)model was applied to predict the water table depth in Hetao Irrigation District. The results demonstrate that the coefficient of multiple determination, R2, is 0.954 and 0.973 in validation period and freezing-thawing period, respectively, and all the RMSE in different periods are less than 0.09 m. suggesting a relatively high accuracy. The 3-order CAR-SVM(T-TF)model structure obtained from Hetao Irrigation District as a whole was used to simulate the water table depths in five irrigation areas in the district. The model has a good applicability in each area, and the predicted water table depths are closed to the measurements. Specially, R2 is more than 0.90, RMSE is less than 0.10 m, and BIAS is less than 0.04 in the freezing-thawing period in each area.
赵天兴, 朱焱*, 杨金忠, 毛威. 基于CAR-SVM模型的季节性冻融区地下水埋深预测[J]. 排灌机械工程学报, 2018, 36(11): 1180-1186.
ZHAO Tianxing, ZHU Yan*, YANG Jinzhong, MAO Wei. CAR-SVM model based water table depth prediction in seasonal freezing-thawing areas. Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engin, 2018, 36(11): 1180-1186.
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