Climate change and its impacts on summer maize yield in Wugong region
DING Hao, WANG Zhi-Nong, SHANG Hu-Jun, ZHANG You-Gong
(1.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A＆F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; 2.Baojixia
Irrigation Management Bureau of Drawing Weihe River, Xianyang, Shaanxi 712000, China)
Abstract：Based on the monthly weather data and summer maize yield data in Wugong station from 1935 to 2010, applying the MannKendall method, straight line slipping average simulating method and path analysis method, the changing characteristics of each meteorological factor, and the impacts of climate changes on the summer maize yield in Wugong region were analyzed. The results showed that: the lowest temperatures have an increasing trend; wind speed and hours of sunshine have been decreasing gradually and have reached an extremely remarkable level; in summer maize growth period, the lowest temperatures and relative humidity have been trending upwards; the highest temperatures, hours of sunshine and wind speeds have been trending downwards and have reached an extremely remarkable level. Their changing rates are 0116 ℃／10a，0006／10a，-0158 ℃／10a，-26707 h／10a and-0063 m／(s·10a),respectively. SPI is diminishing and the climate is gradually evolving into drought; in summer maize growth period, each meteorological factor, together with other meteorological factors, can affect individual summer maize yield and hours of sunshine has the most influential effect on comprehensive summer maize yield, the decisionmaking coefficient being 2309％; decreasing precipitation trend is the major restrictive meteorological factor in increasing summer maize yield, the decisionmaking coefficient being-673％. The negative impacts of climate changes on summer maize yield in Wugong region can be mitigated to some extent by technological innovations and other measures.
［1］Di F S, Yesuf M, Kohlin G, et al. Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in lowincome countries: Household level evidence from the Nile basin, Ethiopia ［J］. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2012, 52(4): 457-478.［2］丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等. 气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势 ［J］. 气候变化研究进展,2006, 2(1): 3-8.Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Shi Guangyu, et al. National assessment report of climate change (I): Climate change in China and its future trend ［J］. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(1): 3-8. (in Chinese)［3］王洪源,李光永. 滴灌模式和灌水下限对甜瓜耗水量和产量的影响 ［J］. 农业机械学报,2010, 41(5): 47-51.Wang Hongyuan, Li Guangyong. Effect of drip irrigation model and irrigation start point on water consumption and yield of sweet melon ［J］. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery, 2010, 41(5): 47-51. (in Chinese)［4］卢爱刚,康世昌,庞德谦,等. 全球升温下中国各地气温变化不同步性研究 ［J］. 干旱区地理,2009, 32(4): 506-511.Lu Aigang, Kang Shichang, Pang Deqian, et al. Asynchronous temperature variation across China under the background of global warming ［J］. Arid Land Geography, 2009, 32(4): 506-511. (in Chinese)［5］李萍萍,程高峰,张佳华,等. 高温对水稻抽穗扬花期生理特征的影响［J］. 江苏大学学报:自然科学版, 2010, 31(2):125-130.Li Pingping, Cheng Gaofeng, Zhang Jiahua, et al. Effects of high temperature stress on physiological characteristics of rice during heading and flowering period ［J］. Journal of Jiangsu University:Natural Science Edition, 2010, 31(2): 125-130. (in Chinese)［6］Tack J, Harri A, Coble K. More than mean effects: Modeling the effect of climate on the higher order moments of crop yields ［J］. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2012, 94(5): 1037-1054.［7］Yao Fengmei, Qin Pengcheng, Zhang Jianhua, et al. Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods ［J］. Atmospheric Science, 2011, 56(8): 729-737.［8］Thaler S, Eitzinger J, Trnka M, et al. Impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation options on winter wheat yield and water productivity in a dry climate in Central Europe ［J］. Journal of Agricultural Science, 2012, 150: 537-555.［9］Hatfield J L, Boote K J, Kimball B A, et al. Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production ［J］. Agronomy Journal, 2011, 103(2): 351-370.［10］Bindi M, Olesen J E. The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change ［J］. Regional Environmental Change, 2011, 11(1): 151-158.［11］Lee J, De G S, Six J. Effect of climate change on field crop production in California′s Central Valley ［J］. Climatic Change, 2011, 109(S1): 335-353.［12］Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements ［M］. Rome: FAO, 1998: 1-49.［13］Zhang Yongfang, Guan Dexin, Jin Changjie, et al. Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in Northeast China ［J］. Journal of Hydrology, 2011, 410(3／4): 239-247.［14］王馥棠,李郁竹,王石立. 农业产量气象模拟与模型引论 ［M］. 北京:科学出版社,1990: 53-55.［15］史印山,王玉珍,池俊成,等. 河北平原气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响 ［J］. 中国生态农业学报,2008, 16(6): 1444-1447.Shi Yinshan, Wang Yuzhen, Chi Juncheng, et al. Impact of climate change on winter wheat production in the Hebei plain ［J］. Chinese Journal of EcoAgriculture, 2008, 16(6): 1444-1447. (in Chinese)［16］袁志发,贠海燕. 试验设计与分析 ［M］.2版.北京:中国农业出版社,2007:220-226.［17］Paulo A A, Rosa R D, Pereira L S. Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal ［J］. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2012, 12: 1481-1491.［18］吴普特,赵西宁. 气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产的影响 ［J］. 农业工程学报,2010, 26(2): 1-6.Wu Pute, Zhao Xining. Impact of climate change on agricultural water use and grain production in China ［J］. Transactions of the CSAE, 2010, 26(2): 1-6. (in Chinese)［19］曹红霞,粟晓玲,康绍忠,等. 陕西关中地区参考作物蒸发蒸腾量变化及原因 ［J］. 农业工程学报,2007, 23(11): 8-16.Cao Hongxia, Su Xiaoling, Kang Shaozhong, et al. Change of reference crop evapotranspiration and causes in Guanzhong region of Shaanxi province ［J］. Transactions of the CSAE, 2007, 23(11): 8-16. (in Chinese)
